Over the past 10 years, defense spending has averaged 3.6% of GDP. Let’s assume it continues to run at that rate in the future unless specific action is taken by Congress.
If we cut defense spending in half, its level would be 1.8% of GDP - only 0.1% higher than the 1.7% immediately before the start of World War II. Under this scenario, defense spending would comprise only 4.9% of the Federal Budget in 2050 versus 17.5% back in 1940. The Debt would still reach 100% of GDP by 2028 and grow to 248% by 2050.
Note: In hindsight, pre-World War II defense spending is considered by most historians to have been almost disastrously low. We can reduce defense spending, but do we consider today’s world to be so much friendlier than it was 70 years ago that we are comfortable cutting it in half?